Assessment of the ecological reaction of soft spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) to the effects of various factors

The purpose of the study: wheat harvest modeling by evaluating plant responses to agroecological factors and conditions of arid steppe agricultural landscapes. Research methods. The information-logical method (analysis) was used to identify the dependencies between the ecological response of wheat and various factors, as well as retrospective and statistical methods. Research results. The assessment of the ecological reaction of soft spring wheat to 17 soil and climatic factors, expressed by the yield value, was carried out through information and logical analysis. The analysis allowed us to develop a unique predictive model (predictive power of 70-76 %) for designing the structure of acreage, agricultural land, crop rotations and, in general, in the management of agricultural landscapes at the municipal and local levels. Conclusions. 1. The article presents studies of the ecological reaction of soft spring wheat over a 22-year lag to agroecological factors of the arid steppe of the Altai Krai. 2. It was established that the territory exceeds 20 thousand km2, consists of five physical and geographical districts (FGD). The assessment of the ecological reaction of wheat to agroecological factors was carried out using information-logical analysis (method), which is based on information theory. In the process of data processing, 17 factors influencing the environmental response were studied. It was determined that the most likely wheat yield is observed if the GTH of the growing season, June and July are 1.0-1.2, and June is more than 1.0. It is shown that the formation of yields in the range of 12-18 c/ha occurs at an average air temperature during the growing season below 16 °C, in June-July – no higher than 18 °C and the temperature in June – below 17 °C. It was found that the average amount of precipitation during the growing season should be 220-280 mm, for June-July – 100-175 mm and for June – in the range of 60-90 mm. It was found that the highest specific state of wheat yield (10-18 c/ha) is typical for the Kuchuk FGD; southern chernozems of medium loamy granulometric composition with a humus content of 4-5 % in the arable layer are the most optimal. The pH of the soil environment and the content of mobile phosphorus have the lowest effect on yield. 3. The results of scientific research can be used to assess the ecological response of wheat and determine its yield through the developed predictive model.