The role of educational tracking and school prestige in shaping adolescents’ achievement trajectories and results at high-stakes national exams

Because academic tracking might reinforce achievement inequalities, this study investigated how academic achievement develops within university- and work-bound tracks in an educational system marked by inequality and high-stakes exams. Using secondary data from three longitudinal projects (N = 3,217, Mage = 17.29, SDage = 1.14, 57% female), we analyzed track placement, school prestige, and parental education as antecedents of academic achievement and Baccalaureate performance as a distal outcome. Latent class growth analyses revealed three trajectories: High-achieving, Average-achieving, and Struggling. Track placement and school prestige predicted trajectory membership, with work-bound tracking and lowered prestige increasing the likelihood of following Average-achieving and Struggling trajectories. Achievement trajectories mediated the link between tracking and Baccalaureate results. Work-bound tracks coupled with lower achievement trajectories were associated with decreased Baccalaureate performance. These findings suggest that not securing a place in prestigious schools or university-bound tracks may create barriers later for adolescents aspiring to pursue higher education.