An Islamic emirate in Africa? Comparing the cases of Afghanistan and Syria with Somalia and Mali

This article examines the transformation of Islamist insurgencies into governing entities. It compares the recent insurgent takeovers of government in Afghanistan and Syria with ongoing insurgencies led by al-Shabaab in Somalia and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin in Mali. The article emphasises the role of international intervention in shaping conflict outcomes and investigates whether similar state takeovers might occur in Africa. Arguing further that the withdrawal of external military forces can be conducive to insurgent groups seizing power, the article evaluates the potential for comparable developments in Somalia and Mali under similar conditions. It concludes that the potential for a takeover is greater in Mali than in Somalia.