Research on the impact of ‘Silk Road E-commerce’ international cooperation on China’s cross-border E-commerce trade

Against the backdrop of global economic digital transformation and the deepening of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has advanced the ‘Silk Road E-commerce’ International Cooperation (SREC) initiative to expand China’s Cross-Border E-commerce Trade (CBET). This study treats SREC memorandum signing as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to systematically evaluate SREC’s impact on China’s CBET. Results show SREC boosts CBET by 10.8% on average, with strong effects in years 1–4 but diminishing returns after year 5. It reduces bilateral trade costs (with a 4–5-year lag) to drive CBET. Smaller digital divides and better logistics (for exports) strengthen policy effects. SREC benefits emerging/developing economies, landlocked nations, and countries along the China-Europe Railway Express route more. This study enriches the theoretical framework of ‘institutional cooperation-digital trade’ and provides targeted insights for optimizing SREC policies. Based on the findings, we recommend policymakers to prioritize phased and differentiated cooperation strategies, accelerate digital infrastructure connectivity, and deepen trade facilitation reforms to sustain the long-term vitality of the SREC initiative.