€2 Gas! Tax Incidence Heterogeneity Under a War Time Tax Holiday

The 2022 energy crisis, triggered by the war in Ukraine, led many governments to enact fuel tax holidays. We study the Italian fuel tax holiday, finding incomplete pass‐through: 65% at less competitive stations versus 80% at those with more rivals. Less competitive stations also exhibit greater pass‐through variability. When same‐brand stations are neighbors, pass‐through falls for less competitive stations but not in competitive markets. These results highlight how the multiplicity of equilibria in imperfectly competitive markets shapes tax pass‐through. Finally, stations owned by Russian state‐owned exhibit higher‐than‐average pass‐through, possibly reflecting supply conditions shaped by the threat of future sanctions.