Opportunistic Upskilling in European Labour Markets—Evidence From a Wide Replication

We build on Modestino et al., who analysed “opportunistic upskilling” during the 2007 recession in the US, by extending their approach to European labour markets following recent economic shocks. Using a comprehensive dataset of online job postings (2019–2023) and an instrumental variable approach leveraging Ukrainian refugee inflows, we find that increases in labour supply have a significant positive effect on both education and experience requirements. Our findings reinforce the idea that employers opportunistically upskill labour demand in different but challenging macroeconomic contexts. The identification of such patterns, however, depends on the presence of a plausibly exogenous shock to labour markets.