Middle power defence: balancing strategies in an age of great power hostility

This article asks how middle powers adjust their defence strategies in the face of new and worsening threats, especially as their traditional alliances become less reliable. It conducts a systematic comparative analysis of middle power balancing strategies across three key regional subsystems—the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Europe—to explain variation in defence responses. Building on neorealist and balance-of-power debates, the article puts forward a new framework for understanding when internal versus external balancing logics will predominate. It posits that middle powers directly facing threats to their sovereignty and territorial integrity will prioritize internal balancing over reliance on external alliances, whereas states not yet targeted may pursue bandwagoning, hedging, or appeasement. While alliances have not been abandoned, the comparative analysis shows a structural shift toward self-help, signalling an emerging era in which middle powers prioritize domestic defence capabilities over alliance commitments.