New strategies to influence land use dynamic: spatial analysis and quantification

Abstract Background Land use plays a critical role in shaping human societies and environmental sustainability. This study investigates strategies influencing land use dynamics and their potential implications for territorial management and public policy development. We propose a new approach to identify three different land use strategies, and to quantify and analyze their spatial relevance. The study area, located in a Brazilian Biosphere Reserve, covers two watersheds with distinct ecosystems and socioeconomic contexts. We implemented the following steps: mapping land use, computing the potential for agricultural use, mapping restricted zones, and computing the strategies. We accessed public databases and performed spatial analyses using Google Earth Engine, Google Colab and QGIS software. Results One of the watersheds exhibits less anthropization and better environmental preservation. Consequently, it presents greater potential for implementing Payment for Environmental Services (PES) programs. The other watershed, with higher anthropization and agricultural intensity, requires more extensive restoration, especially in restricted areas. Conclusion These differences underscore the importance of tailoring land management strategies to specific socioeconomic and environmental characteristics, ensuring effective conservation and territorial management. The primary scientific novelty of this work lies in the methodological integration that transitions from traditional land-use diagnostics to a prescriptive spatial planning framework. Our study contributes to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities), SDG 15 (Life on Land), and SDG 13 (Climate Action).