Accelerating the Energy Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stochastic Programming Framework

The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-induced disasters have provided the impetus to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a threshold identified for avoiding the catastrophic effects of climate change. While developed economies have seen increased renewable energy deployments, the slow progress in developing countries creates a significant gap in the global effort to limit global temperature rise. This study proposes a long-term decision-support framework for accelerating RE capacity expansion in sub-Saharan Africa. It employs probabilistic models to address the uncertainties and variabilities in VREs and reservoir-based hydro dams and determines cost-effective strategies that fulfill current and future electricity demands, using Ghana as a case study. Numerical results show that Ghana’s non-hydro RE (NRE) capacity will expand by more than five times from 255.3 MW in 2028 to 8,603.3 MW in 2060. The discounted annual investment required for the new capacity additions ranges from 0.06% to 1.04% of Ghana’s gross domestic product (GDP). Annual electricity generation costs will decrease by more than 90%, from $158/MWh in 2028 to $10/MWh in 2060, due to increased generation from NRE sources. The findings demonstrate that Ghana can achieve an accelerated energy transition consistent with climate objectives while meeting future electricity demand.