Dynamic Model for the Prospective Analysis of Poblano Chili Pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) Production in a Semi-Arid Region of Mexico

The poblano chili pepper is essential to the economy of Mexico’s semi-arid regions. However, its production is constrained by climatic variability and market uncertainty. This research examined open-field production in Villa de Arista, San Luis Potosí, using a dynamic model developed in VensimPLE. Three scenarios were simulated. In the trend scenario, productivity grew 1.6% annually, reaching 3.8 t/ha by 2040. Under the critical scenario, production declined to 2.7 t/ha, while the optimistic, with subsidies, reached 4.6 t/ha. Results underscore the system’s vulnerability to climate variability and provide a transferable framework to support sustainable development in semi-arid environments.