The Superstar Effect in Tennis—A Within-Match Analysis

This study examines how superstars affect players’ situational performance in professional men's tennis. We use match-level data from 27,366 main draw Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) singles matches between the 2004 and 2019 seasons. Estimating a high-dimensional fixed effects model, we use ATP serve and return ratings to proxy performance in dominant (serve) and nondominant (return) situations of both higher-ranked (HR) and lower-ranked (LR) players. We provide evidence that HR players deliberately increase/decrease their performance in (non)dominant match situations based on their rank and the timing of facing a superstar in subsequent matches. Similarly, there are differences in the extent of performance shifts induced by superstars among different rank groups for LR players; however, the differences do not extend to different within-match situations.