Rules of the game: Legislative exits in four Westminster systems

By leveraging over 150 years of electoral and biographical data in the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia, we argue that voluntary exit is best understood as a cost-benefit calculation shaped by positional and institutional incentives in the legislative arena. We show that institutional changes that make seeking re-election costlier are associated with an increased likelihood of a legislator voluntarily exiting the legislative arena. We also find that the determinants of exit vary across age cohorts: younger legislators are more sensitive to institutional and positional cost-benefit incentives, reflecting greater professional mobility and outside career opportunities. Overall, our results indicate that positional and institutional in part explain a legislator’s decision to not seek re-election, but that their impact of these incentives is mediated by life-cycle and retirement-horizon considerations.