A systems dynamics approach to climate change policies in soybean production and transportation in Brazil

Goal: The growing demand for food and the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions require sustainable solutions in the agricultural sector, particularly in the transportation of commodities such as soybeans. This study evaluates the combined impact of transportation policies and sustainable agricultural practices on the soybean supply chain in Brazil, utilizing an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) based on System Dynamics (SD). Design/methodology/approach: The model simulates various public policy scenarios, including the National Logistics Plan (PNL35), alongside agricultural practices such as No-Tillage Systems (NTS) and the Legal Reserve Law (LRL). Results: The results indicate that PNL35 has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions by up to 23%, albeit constrained by logistical costs. The expansion of NTS and LRL enhances carbon sequestration, offsetting a portion of transport emissions. Limitations of the investigation: A limitation of this study is that it does not fully account for infrastructure constraints and dependence on external funding, which may pose significant financial and regulatory barriers to the practical implementation of the proposed strategies. Practical implications: The study provides practical insights for policymakers and agribusiness managers by showing that integrating transport infrastructure planning with sustainable farming practices can significantly reduce Brazil’s soybean supply chain emissions and support national decarbonization goals. Originality/Value: The study underscores the importance of integrating transportation policies and sustainable agricultural practices to achieve decarbonization targets in the sector.