Interdependence under External Pressure: Japan-Taiwan Semiconductor Cooperation and the Logic of Externalised Vulnerability

The semiconductor sector has emerged as a central arena of geopolitical rivalry, rekindling concerns regarding the strategic risks associated with economic interdependence. Existing academic debates typically explain vulnerability in interdependent relationships in terms of bilateral power asymmetries or conflicting strategic interests. However, independence can also be shaped by the concept of externalised vulnerability, whereby heightened exposure to disruption and limited mitigation options arise under conditions of geopolitical rivalry due to the presence of an external adversary, rather than conflicts between the interdependent partners themselves. Japan-Taiwan semiconductor cooperation illustrates this dynamic. Vulnerability does not stem from asymmetrical dependence between the two economies, which remain highly complementary and cooperative. Rather, geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait, US-PRC technological rivalry and export control dynamics, generate structural uncertainty that reshapes Japan-Taiwan semiconductor interdependence. Against this backdrop, Japan and Taiwan respond to externalised vulnerability by deepening institutionalised cooperation rather than pursuing decoupling.