Enhancing Efficiency in Public Education Expenditure through Short-Term Forecasting

This study presents a short-term forecast of the financial expenses of a Federal Institution of Higher Education (HEI) within the context of budgetary challenges in Brazil, especially in the field of public education. Based on time series data of HEI expenditures, the SARIMA model is employed to forecast the financial needs for the upcoming fiscal months. The results demonstrate the potential of more accurate forecasts to optimize the efficiency of public spending in Brazil’s educational system, as well as to support operational planning, including workforce allocation. One limitation of this study is that future research could explore some additional variables or techniques to increase the accuracy and robustness of the forecasts. Nevertheless, the findings have the potential to significantly contribute to the improvement of financial planning and resource management in HEIs, promoting a more effective allocation of resources to meet the needs of the local academic community and, consequently, increasing the efficiency of public spending in Brazil. Enhancing financial forecasting in HEIs can make it possible to achieve efficient resource allocation and greater transparency and accountability in public spending. By employing the SARIMA model for short-term financial forecasting, this study offers an innovative solution to improve financial requirements. This approach stands out by providing a data-driven method linked to the unique context of HEIs in Brazil, offering insights for improving operational efficiency.