Integration of Topography Map and Land Use Change Modeling for Sustainable Tourism Development in Merapi Volcano, Indonesia

Indonesia, as the country with the highest number of active volcanoes worldwide, faces significant challenges from volcanic hazards. Mount Merapi, one of the most active volcanoes, is surrounded by intensive tourism and residential development, which increase the region’s vulnerability. This study integrates DEMNAS-based topographic analysis and the Land Change Modeler (LCM) with the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)–Markov Chain algorithm to examine land-use dynamics and risks to tourism in the Opak Oyo Watershed. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery (2004, 2014, 2024) was classified using the CART algorithm, achieving an overall accuracy of 94.5% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.928. The results show that between 2014 and 2024, the area of built-up land increased by 47.12 km², while that of forests declined by 127.76 km², indicating strong anthropogenic pressure. The validated LCM model projected that by 2034 built-up land will expand to 228.13 km², increasing by 46.04 km² (3.53%) compared to 2024, while agricultural land is predicted to decrease by 100.14 km² (–7.67%). Forest areas are projected to increase by 90.75 km² (6.95%), reflecting ecological rehabilitation scenarios. Tourism risk analysis shows that a significant number of tourism sites are located within KRB III (a high-risk zone), where projected building expansion overlaps with areas exposed to pyroclastic flows and lahar hazards. The findings highlight that integrating topographic constraints with predictive land-use modeling provides a robust spatial framework for sustainable tourism development in volcanic regions. The approach supports risk-informed zoning, environmentally sensitive land allocation, and long-term spatial planning strategies in Mount Merapi and other hazard-prone landscapes.