On China - US Bilateral Trade Relationship Based on Time - Series Analysis

This paper focuses on the total quantity and price of China-US bilateral trade and conducts a time series analysis by comprehensively various econometric methods. By sorting out the China-US trade data from 1980 to 2019, covering variables such as total import and export quantity, price index, the descriptive analysis reveals the growth trend and fluctuation nodes of trade quantity. The unit root test stabilizes the data, the Granger causality test determines the causal relationship between variables, and the cointegration test identifies three cointegration equations, which are then used to construct the least squares regression equation. The impulse response analysis shows that the growth rate index of the total China-US trade quantity, the growth index of consumer prices and ROW have a significant impact on the growth rate index of China's global import and export quantity. The variance decomposition shows that the growth rate index of China's global import and export quantity itself has the greatest impact on it. The research results provide a foundation for a comprehensive understanding of China-US bilateral trade relations and have reference value for the formulation of trade policies and related research.