Seat Retention, Reclamation, and Expansion: Explaining BJP-led NDA’s 2024 Victory

ABSTRACT The Indian General Elections of 2024 commenced with a much hyped ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’ slogan by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party aiming for a parliamentary supermajority, winning 370 seats alone and over 400 constituencies together with its allies. The elections concluded with a third consecutive BJP victory albeit reliant on regional parties like the Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal (United), crucial pre-poll allies for a parliamentary majority. While the seat targets were often proclaimed as an emotive or psychological mark for the BJP and its cadre, what is often being overlooked, is a clear arithmetic calculus which seems to have shaped the BJP’s electoral strategy in the recent Lok Sabha polls. Retaining the 303 seats it won last time around in 2019, reclaiming some 50 odd seats which the party had won earlier but couldn’t win in 2019 while expanding into some newer constituencies where it had never emerged victorious before. The formula of ‘Gain, Regain and Retain’ thus strategically summarises BJP’s ‘Mission 370’. Using election data provided by the ECI and Lokniti - CSDS, this article shall assess the BJP’s performance along these three parameters while analysing state-specific and sometimes even sub-regional or constituency level reasons for the same. It argues that an impressive retention rate despite notable losses paralleled by modest to low success rates in reclaiming older seats and expanding into newer constituencies explain the sobering victory of the party in this election placing the BJP in pole position to form a third consecutive government with support of its allies. In conclusion, this article shall also reflect on the nature of the BJP as a political party and the Indian party system in current times offering key strategic insights, electorally relevant for the BJP and the Opposition in and after 2024.