Wheels within reach: Evaluating bike share equity impacts of a pseudo-free student pass using network-distance-based kernel density

The rapid expansion of bike share systems has raised important questions about who benefits from these services and whether new policies or investments promote equitable access. In September 2024, the McMaster Students Union introduced a pseudo-free student pass program that provided heavily subsidized annual memberships to all undergraduate students at McMaster University for Hamilton Bike Share. This sudden influx of student demand created an opportunity to examine how such a policy or partnership reshapes patterns of bike share use and availability across the city. This paper investigates the spatial and social equity implications of the program by analyzing daily morning bike availability before and after its introduction, with a focus on historically underrepresented groups including women, young residents, older adults, visible minority groups, and low-income residents. We applied hexagonal-level network-distance-based kernel density estimation to quantify daily morning bike share availability over a four-month period in fall 2023 and 2024, and computed two equity metrics using sociodemographic data from the 2021 Canadian Census to assess both spatial and social equity performance. Statistical significance of equity changes was evaluated through bootstrapping. Our findings show that female, older adult, and low-income populations experienced a statistically significant net decline in overall equity, while young residents saw a significant improvement. For visible minority groups, spatial equity improved, but social equity declined significantly. To facilitate interpretation and policy application, we present an equity quadrant analysis framework that explicitly accounts for trade-offs between these two dimensions. As a case study, this research provides evidence on the broader equity implications of ridership-increasing policies in active transportation, while offering a generalizable framework for connecting spatial and social equity in the design of inclusive mobility systems.