Strategy for spatial organization of geo-competitive industrial growth of the Russian

The article examines theoretical and methodological approaches to the spatial organization of geo-competitive development of the Arctic fuel and energy complex in current geopolitical conditions. The authors propose an innovative method for comprehensively assessing spatial heterogeneity, taking into account the economic and geographical factors of multilateral resistance characteristic of the Arctic zone. Based on the method they have developed a new analytical trade model of the spatial organization of transregional trade in Arctic energy resources, allowing for assessing the export potential of extractive industries. The study has revealed that traditional methods for analyzing the scale effects of economic growth, which fail to account for the unique economic and geographical features of the Arctic region, can significantly distort the estimated parameters of the prospective development of the Arctic economy, which, in turn, casts doubt on the reliability of the expected results stated in the strategic plans. The developed method, on the contrary, has turned out to be resistant to trade frictions associated with the Arctic economic and geographical specifics, allowing for accurate analysis of both statistical data and empirically significant variables that influence the forecast of Arctic economic growth effects.