Electric energy and decarbonized power plant capacity requirements to support battery electric vehicle penetration in Morocco by 2050

This paper aims to present an estimate of the of electricity needs until 2050 in a "business-as-usual" Moroccan economy (2.48% annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in constant value per capita), first without, then with a massive but gradual introduction of battery electric vehicles (BEV) following three scenarios simulated by three logistic curves respectively centered on 2051, 2054, and 2057. The study does not require the evolution number of vehicles since it deals only with their total energy requirements. The idea is based on conserving the energy supplied today "to the wheel" of current internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in the battery electric vehicles (BEVs) of the future and, consequently, on a universal model of two conversion chains for current ICEVs, on the one hand, and future BEVs, on the other. A so-called "universal model" of the two conversion chains is proposed to allow jumping from land fuels (diesel and gasoline) to electricity requirements. A forecast of the evolution of national needs for land fuels then makes it possible to calculate electricity needs for each scenario of penetration of BEVs. The results show that powering the 2050 BEV in the slowest scenario would need the equivalent of all the 2020 net electric demand and the equivalent of the 2025 annual maximum power. At the end, the paper shows that, in 2050, around 28 GWp of solar photovoltaic (PV), or 14 GW of wind or 7 GW of nuclear plants should be needed to operate the BEVs penetration of the fastest scenario considered.