Do People Underestimate Time? Exploring Feedback-Based Performance Time Predictions Using Brief Tasks

While it is commonly believed that people underestimate how long tasks take, past laboratory studies often reveal a bias towards overestimation. One reason for this discrepancy could be that laboratory research is vulnerable to the “central tendency of judgment”, where predictions of short tasks are biased toward the center of a reference frame that includes larger tasks. We developed a task paradigm involving multiple predictions of brief tasks, enabling participants to establish a more relevant reference frame. We expected that extensive experience with duration feedback would make people underestimate due to a) using the most typical outcomes (e.g., the mode) as predictions, which gives underestimation when durations are right-skewed (mode < mean), or b) neglecting infrequent longer-lasting tasks. However, bias was not discernible from zero in Studies 1, 3 and 4, while Studies 2 and 5 indicated overestimation, contrary to our hypotheses. Overall, it does not appear that underestimation has been concealed by the central tendency of judgment in past studies, and our analyses did not support the above notions regarding typical outcomes used as predictions or the neglect of longer-lasting tasks.