Infrastructure-Led Development: The Reciprocal Asymmetry of the Urban Growth Machine

Road construction is a catalyst of land-use change. In this analysis, drawing on the growth machine framework, the investigators assess whether there is any reciprocal feedback in this process, specifically asking if there is a bidirectional association between road construction and land development. To answer that question, the investigators use recently released satellite imagery from the National Land Cover Database’s Impervious Descriptor dataset. The analysis covers the years 2010 to 2024, during a period of sustained growth for the 3,203 census tracts in the four major metropolitan areas of the “Texas Triangle.” The investigators compare results from two types of longitudinal models using first differences: cross-lagged structural equation models and spatial regression models. Results from these models reveal that the impact of road construction on land development is proportionately greater than the reciprocal impact of land development on road construction, providing an example of an asymmetric reciprocal socioecological association. From the growth machine perspective, the investigators argue that road construction and land development do not function as equal, twin engines of growth but rather as primary and subordinate catalysts of urban expansion, implying an infrastructure-led strategy of the growth coalition elite.