Modelación de la Favorabilidad Climática para Phytophthora spp. en Ecuador: Implicaciones para el Control Biológico en el Cultivo de Cacao

Cocoa is a crop of great economic importance worldwide; however, it faces serious risks due to climatic factors, pests, and diseases. The present study evaluated variations in climatic favorability for the proliferation of Phytophthora spp. in Ecuador under dif ferent climate change scenarios. For this purpose, ecological niche models based on MaxEnt were used, integrating climatic and geographic data together with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), including SSP2-4,5 and SSP5-8,5 scenarios for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100. The results showed that the current distribution of Phytophthora spp. significantly overlaps with the main cocoa-producing areas, especially in the Coastal region. However, under future climate scenarios, the favorable area for the pathogen expands toward higher-altitude zones, potentially af fecting regions of the Amazon. The results also revealed that more than 50% of the national cocoa-growing area coincides with the potential distribution of the pathogen. Finally, the design of territorialized prevention strategies, including agroecological practices, biological control, and local capacity building, could ef fectively control disease proliferation. The study emphasizes the urgency of adopting dif ferentiated preventive measures to reduce phytosanitary risk and protect cocoa sustainability under climate change conditions.