From Cyrillic to Latin: A Step Toward Phonemic Precision in Kazakh

This study reassesses Kazakhstan’s 2021 Latin script design against the 1940 Cyrillic through a phoneme-to-grapheme correspondence (PGC) lens. We formalize an inventory-level estimator (PGC-Core) and evaluate three scenarios: Minimalist (Core phonemes), Standard (Core + Integrated loan segments), and an Extended set reported for coverage (Marginals documented but excluded from the mean). The Latin design exhibits consistently higher correspondence, reflecting a nine-vowel analysis, clearer treatment of glides, and a consistent diacritic system. We review earlier Latinization drafts and resolve contested cases (e.g., /j/ as a phoneme with context-conditioned mapping; loan affricates via a fixed digraph). Methodologically, the paper couples a transparent scoring scheme (A1–A3) with qualitative analysis of vowel polysemy, graphemic multifunctionality, and the management of dual-script coexistence. Status flags (Core/Integrated/Marginal) and a single formula specify what is averaged and what is excluded, ensuring replicability. A comparative section situates Kazakhstan among other reforms – especially in the Turkic sphere – distilling policy levers that correlate with smoother adoption. Beyond linguistic fit, script choice carries digital consequences. We outline practical measures—time-boxed coexistence, clear style guidance, funded teacher re-tooling, conversion pipelines, and unified ICT standards for input, hyphenation, OCR/ASR, and cross-script retrieval—to translate orthographic clarity into lower learning and production costs. Overall, the evidence supports Latin as the more faithful and operationally scalable orthography for contemporary Kazakh.