What Happens When a Black Swan Meets a Gray Rhino? Reflections on the Evaluation Market in Transformative Times

This chapter examines recent disruptions in the U.S. evaluation market through the combined lens of the Evaluation Marketplace Framework and the Black Swan/Gray Rhino typology. We argue that the Trump Administration's abrupt reduction in federal evaluation commissioning constitutes a Black Swan shock, whereas the long‐anticipated technological transformation driven by artificial intelligence represents a Gray Rhino. Considered collectively, these forces are reshaping the context, composition, and dynamics of the evaluation marketplace. Looking ahead, we outline three plausible trajectories—optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic—that signal divergent futures for the evaluation market. We further posit the emergence of digital and AI literacy as a central competitive differentiator within the evaluation industry.