Evaluating the Impact of Public Participation Framing on Decision Outcomes in Strategic Environmental Assessments: Evidence From South Africa

Public participation in strategic environmental decision-making has become increasingly complex amid contemporary social, economic, and political turbulence, placing greater scrutiny on the effectiveness of participation practices in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). This study examines the added value of public participation in SEA, particularly for marginalised communities, where public input does not always translate into decision change and may generate resistance. Drawing on framing theory, stakeholder salience, and public participation models, the study employs a dual-method approach. First, a Public Participation Influence Score (PPIS) was developed through qualitative coding of input framing and stakeholder salience. Second, a binary logistic regression model assesses whether different framing types and stakeholder groups vary in their influence on decision outcomes. The findings show that both the framing of stakeholder input (informational, diagnostic, or prognostic) and stakeholder salience attributes (power, legitimacy, and urgency) significantly shape the likelihood of decision change in SEA processes.