How iteration frequencies affect project uncertainty and risk ‐ An empirically elaborated model

Iterative approaches have gained prominence in new product development (NPD) projects in response to increasingly dynamic and turbulent business environments. In this article, we study how iteration frequency—that is, the rhythm at which development teams revisit and test comprehensive products—affects an NPD project's uncertainty and risk. We extend existing theoretical knowledge through a parsimonious analytical model, grounded in and elaborated by case interviews. This combined approach allows us to distinguish two mechanisms—uncertainty smoothing and risk absorption—through which higher iteration frequencies shape project outcomes. While uncertainty smoothing enhances outcome predictability as uncertainty is resolved across smaller iterations, risk absorption improves the expected project outcome by increasing the likelihood of success through systematic incorporation of feedback over multiple iterations.