Multi-scale modelling of prairie dog habitat associations to inform conservation translocation at their northern extent

The North American prairie has undergone extensive degradation, leading to the decline of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus), a keystone and ecosystem engineer species. At the species’ northern range limit, their only remaining population is in and around Grasslands National Park (GNP), Canada, where the species is federally listed as at risk. Here, conservation efforts aim to restore their ecological role and support the reintroduction of extirpated black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes). To inform translocation planning, we developed multi-scale models to assess associations of biotic and abiotic factors with observed prairie dog habitat use. We sampled four colonies (sampling sites) in GNP using a stratified design across consistently used, inconsistently used, and adjacent unused areas, based on colony perimeter mapping conducted from 2000 to 2017. Vegetation, terrain, and landscape barriers were recorded at 25 systematically random points per area (stratum). Habitat use was modelled at two spatial scales: landscape (used vs. unused areas) and colony (consistently vs. inconsistently used areas), using generalized linear models and generalized linear mixed-effects models. At the landscape scale, prairie dog habitat use was negatively associated with steep slopes, tall vegetation (> 30 cm), and dry litter. At the colony scale, consistent habitat use was negatively associated with terrain undulation (topographic variation), vegetation > 10 cm, and high dry litter. Both models had area under the curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.70 to 0.85. Our findings contribute to refining habitat suitability assessments for translocation site selection and highlight the potential of inconsistently used areas for future colony expansion. These insights can inform the recovery of prairie dogs and prairie ecosystems, including the reintroduction of black-footed ferrets and other associated species.