Enter the trade war? European public opinion on trade restrictions against China

This paper investigates how geopolitical factors shape individual preferences for export controls, focusing on EU–China trade in high-technology sectors. Supporters of a tougher stance toward China frequently use arguments about national security and economic containment. We examine how these arguments affect public opinion in European countries. We hypothesize that people display greater support for trade restrictions when the decision is motivated by security concerns rather than by the desire to slow China’s economic rise. We further argue that public support decreases if the economic costs of the decision are high. We test our theoretical expectations using a survey experiment with 8,770 respondents in five European countries: France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Sweden. Only a third of respondents support trade restrictions overall. Contrary to our theoretical expectations, security and economic containment frames generate similar levels of support. Our findings further indicate that citizens’ support declines as the costs to their country increase. These results advance our understanding of how geopolitical considerations shape trade attitudes by demonstrating the interaction of material and geopolitical factors. They suggest that domestic constituencies in Europe are not overly concerned about China’s rise and do not endorse a strategy of economic coercion.