How does the matching relationship between negative events and destination image influence potential tourists’ visit intentions? The moderating role of intolerance of uncertainty

Based on moral decoupling theory and the stereotype content model, this study examines how negative events influence potential tourists’ visit intentions via three experiments. The findings confirm that the matching effect significantly reduces visit intentions, with higher destination-event matching levels correlating with stronger declines. Furthermore, intolerance of uncertainty significantly moderates this relationship: individuals with higher intolerance exhibit markedly lower intentions. Moral decoupling additionally mediates the effect of matching on reduced visit intentions. These results demonstrate how negative events shape tourist decisions through destination characteristics, tourist traits, and event properties, advancing both theoretical and practical frameworks for destination development.