Evaluación ex post de las proyecciones demográficas ecuatorianas: avances y desafíos en la ronda censal 2020

Population estimates and projections (PEP) are an essential planning tool; however, they are subject to a certain degree of uncertainty due to social, political, and technical changes, as well as the methodological decisions made during the process. The objectives of this work are as follows: to systematically review the methods employed in all PEP carried out in the country; to examine the foundations and assumptions of demographic prediction; and to break down total errors into base and change errors, applying formulas developed by Khan and Lutz (2008) and adapted by García Guerrero (2014). The data used correspond to the 2012 revision of the PEP—as the projection to be evaluated—and the 2024 revision as the reference. The results reveal an overprojection of 325 540 people for 2022, which is mainly attributable to the assumptions of the 2012 revision: an overestimation of fertility due to a stalled schedule and a high lower asymptote; excess mortality from COVID-19 and external causes not anticipated in the trajectory of life expectancy; and implausible expectations regarding migration. Institutional memory loss is also a key underlying factor. This work contributes to the demographic literature by offering a methodological reflection on the nature and purpose of demographic projections, a detailed assessment of EPP performance in contexts of rapid social transformation, and by emphasizing the need for periodic revisions, greater methodological transparency, and institutional strengthening of national statistics offices in the region.