U.S. Agricultural Export Potential with South Asian, Southeast Asian, and Southern African Countries: A Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model Approach

We analyzed the determinants and potential of U.S. agricultural exports to South Asian, Southeast Asian, and Southern African countries by employing a stochastic frontier gravity model. Our estimated results suggest that importers’ GDP, institutional quality, globalization level, and participation in Trade and Investment Framework Agreement significantly promote U.S. exports, while geographic distance and landlocked status act as major constraints. The derived technical efficiency scores reveal considerable underperformance of U.S. exports. We recommend that the United States can expand and strengthen its Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, institutional cooperation, interconnectedness, and direct policy focus toward countries with the largest export gaps.