How to Increase Urban Road Safety: An Integrated Model for Predicting Pedestrian Behaviour Based on Psychological and External Factors

The study investigates the factors influencing pedestrian decisions to commit temporal violations at signalized intersections, with the aim of enhancing urban road safety. To achieve this, an integrated model combining subjective components from the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and the Prototype Willingness Model (PWM) with relevant external factors was developed and validated. The findings underscore the significance of external factors – such as pedestrian red signal duration, vehicle flow, roadway length, and the presence of a median refuge island – alongside willingness and perceived behavioural control as key predictors of pedestrian behaviour. Intentions, in contrast, showed limited influence, highlighting the dominance of social-reactive pathways over reasoned decision-making in pedestrian violations. The study contributes a novel, comprehensive framework for understanding pedestrian behaviour by integrating psychological and situational predictors, thereby providing valuable insights for the design of safer urban intersections.