Partisan abortions

We study the effect of unexpected government changes on fertility outcomes using administrative data on births and abortions in Spain. Following a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that, after the surprise loss of the party in power in 2004, municipalities with strong support for that party experienced a sharp immediate increase in abortions (of 0.05 pregnancy interruptions per 1000 women in the month after), as well as a decrease in pregnancies (of 0.14 monthly conceptions per 1000 women). We also find a short-term decrease in shotgun marriages. The election also had an immediate effect on economic expectations along partisan lines, a plausible channel for the impact on fertility.