“Offending the audience: a normative account of democratic audience costs”

ABSTRACT When democratic leaders renege on public threats to adversaries or commitments to allies, their domestic audiences can impose political sanctions: a mechanism known as democratic audience costs. Rationalist International Relations scholarship has extensively studied audience costs as an empirical phenomenon explaining crisis bargaining outcomes and alliance credibility, yet no normative account exists of the moral duties democratic audiences possess when deciding whether to sanction leaders for reneging on militarized threats or commitments. This article provides the first such normative account. I argue that democratic audience costs are morally significant because they rest on audiences’ morally grounded political rights and involve promise-breaking and trust-betrayal that harm both domestic publics and foreign allies. Building on these foundations, I propose a three-proposition normative framework: audiences have a pro tanto duty to sanction leaders who renege on public threats or commitments; this duty can be overridden when following through would create at least a moderate expected likelihood of basic human rights violations; and in such cases, audiences acquire an absolute duty to sanction leaders who fail to renege, provided this does not create even greater risks. I defend this account against objections concerning the epistemic capacities of mass publics, the moral relevance of direct versus indirect rights violations, and the justification for establishing non-reneging as the moral default. This framework bridges normative political theory and IR scholarship while providing practical guidance for democratic accountability in international disputes.