Stirring the populist tide: campaign rhetoric and electoral choices in the 2022 Korean presidential election

How and to what extent can populism emerge in a new democracy where strong populism politics has not previously existed? Contrary to earlier findings that the effects of populism on voting have been minimal in South Korea, the 2022 presidential campaigns were marked by populism rhetoric and mobilisations, raising questions about the sudden rise of populism politics. This paper argues that even in a new but consolidated democracy that has been relatively free from the threat of populism, populism can influence elections when politicians mobilise economic grievance and political dissatisfaction, and when voters with latent populist attitudes resonate with such appeals. To support this argument, this paper analyses all official campaign speeches and assesses their level of populist rhetoric with holistic grading methods. Quantitative analysis of pre- and post-election surveys shows that, while populist attitudes did not significantly influence vote choice before the campaign, voters with stronger populist attitudes were more likely to vote for the candidate who delivered more populist speeches after the campaign began. These findings demonstrate that populist voting can be activated even in political contexts without a strong historical presence of populism.