Carbon emission analysis based on regional economic development and impact on the improvement of urban industrial ecosystem

Aiming at the balance problem between the rapid development of regional economy and carbon emission control, a method for analyzing the impact of urban industrial ecosystems based on spatial econometric models was studied and proposed. By constructing a carbon emission index system and a spatial error model, the dynamic relationship between provincial carbon emissions and urban industrial ecosystems in China from 2012 to 2021 was empirically explored. The experimental results show that for every 1% increase in carbon emissions, the development index of the urban industrial ecosystem significantly increases by 1.027% (P<0.1), indicating that carbon emissions drive economic growth in the short term. The Moran index analysis shows that there is a spatial positive correlation between carbon emissions and urban industrial ecosystems. For example, the total carbon emission index Moran's I=0.154, P<0.01, confirming the linkage effect between carbon emissions and economic activities among regions. While carbon emission intensity decreased by an average of 2.3% annually, the ratio of GDP to carbon emission intensity increased by 15.8%, confirming that low-carbon transformation can promote the coordinated development of the economy and ecology by improving energy efficiency. Research shows that carbon emissions have a dual role of short-term driving and long-term optimization in urban industrial ecosystems. It is necessary to achieve a dynamic balance between economic growth and carbon reduction through policy guidance such as green investment and increasing the proportion of renewable energy, providing quantitative decision-making basis for the green transformation of urban industrial ecosystems.