The offset imaginary: Great power competition, security imaginaries, and the making of artificial intelligence in American defense planning

ABSTRACT This article draws from the International Relations literature on security imaginaries to examine how the development of AI has been socially constructed by defense planners in the United States as a key technological domain of great power competition. It argues that to fully understand this relationship, we need to recognize how the offset imaginary promoted as part of the Third Offset Strategy has shaped a specific view of these technologies' desired geopolitical purpose. The offset imaginary has framed technological innovation, the development of new warfighting concepts, and organizational adaptation as key to sustaining the DoD's battlefield edge over competitors with larger militaries. By analyzing the institutionalization of this imaginary in the Pentagon's AI adoption efforts in the decade after November 2014, this article calls for greater awareness of how security imaginaries shape American defense planning in today's era of great power competition.