Detecting Anomalies in Radon and Thoron Time Series Data Using Kernel and Wavelet Density Estimation Methods

Long-term monitoring of radon (222Rn) and thoron (220Rn) radioactive gases has been used in earthquake forecasting. Seismic activity before earthquakes raises the levels of these gases, causing abnormalities in the baseline values of radon and thoron time series (RTTS) data. This study reports applications of kernel density estimation (KDE) and wavelet-based density estimation (WBDE) to detect anomalies in radon, thoron, and meteorological time-series data. Anomalies appearing in the RTTS data have been assessed for their potential correlation with seismic events. Using KDE and WBDE, radon anomalies were observed on 12 March, 15 August, 17 September, in the year 2017, and 19 January 2018. Thoron anomalies were recorded on 12 March, 15 August, 17 September 2017, and 28 February 2018. Irregularities in RTTS were observed several days before seismic events. Anomalies in RTTS, detected using KDE, successfully correlated five out of nine seismic events while WBDE identified four anomalies in RTTS which were successfully correlated with the corresponding seismic events. The wavelet transform has been used to reduce noise at higher decomposition levels in radon and thoron time series. Findings of the study reveal the potential of radon and thoron time series that can be used as precursors for earthquake forecasting.