Nowcasting inbound visitor statistics from China to Japan

This study developed a nowcasting framework for predicting monthly arrivals of Chinese visitors to Japan using search indices. We selected the Baidu index as it provides a reliable measure of online information-seeking behaviour related to travel intentions in China. We constructed a composite search index based on multiple keywords related to the interests of the Chinese people in their travelling to Japan, and evaluated its predictive performance. Through the econometric analysis, we confirmed that the search index could improve nowcasting accuracy relative to the benchmark time-series model. A case study of 2023 further demonstrated the practical value of the search index: it successfully predicted two major turning points in Chinese visitor arrivals – (i) from stagnation to recovery in March 2023 following Japan’s relaxation of border controls, and (ii) from increase to decline in August 2023 amid renewed bilateral tensions regarding the release of treated water. This study contributed to tourism nowcasting and offers insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders seeking to respond quickly to the change in international travel flows.