Estimates of cancer incidence to 2025 in Italy: Numbers and rates.

OBJECTIVES We forecasted the incidence of malignant tumours in Italy in 2025, using the most representative estimates of incidence rates and recent trends in cancer incidence available. A comparison with estimates for 2025 obtained using different assumptions and data sets is also presented.

METHODS 34 cancer registries (81 % of the Italian population) were used to estimate incidence rate trends in 2013-2017, by cancer types, sex, and age. The stratified incidence rates were projected until 2025 by applying trends in the same strata, using a linear regression model with the calendar year as an independent variable.

RESULTS We estimated 362,100 new cancer cases in Italy in 2025 (182,300 in men, 179,800 in women). Prostate is the most frequent cancer site in men (31,200 cases; age-standardised incidence rates-ASR=92.3 per 100,000), followed by lung (27,100, ASR=80.9), bladder, and colon-rectum (23,000 cases each; ASR=69.0). 55,900 women were estimated to be diagnosed with breast cancer (ASR=159.0 per 100,000), 18,900 with colorectal (ASR=47.0) and 16,400 with lung cancers (ASR=41.0).

CONCLUSIONS Our estimates were slightly lower than those based on other assumptions and/or different datasets (i.e., ECIS/GLOBOCAN ones). More effective anti-smoking campaigns are needed to halt the predicted increase in smoking-related cancers among women.