Floods, elephants, and tropical forest change in Sumatra

ABSTRACT This article examines the interconnected dynamics of flooding, human – elephant encounters, and tropical forest change in Sumatra through the lenses of critical agrarian studies and political ecology. It analyses how recurrent floods, intensifying human – wildlife encounters, and socio-ecological disruption are shaped by long-term processes of agrarian transformation associated with palm oil expansion, plantation capitalism, and state-backed land commodification, while also interacting with climate variability and extreme weather events. Over the past three decades, Indonesia’s rapid expansion of oil palm plantations has reconfigured forested and peatland landscapes through deforestation, drainage, and infrastructural development, altering hydrological systems and patterns of vulnerability. Extreme rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Senyar in late 2025 intersected with these transformed landscapes, contributing to widespread flooding across Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra, with severe impacts on lives, livelihoods, and displacement. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork, land-use analysis, and policy review, the article situates floods and human – elephant encounters as socio-ecological outcomes emerging from the interaction of climatic dynamics, enclosure, ecological simplification, and governance arrangements. In doing so, it contributes to debates on agrarian change, environmental governance, and climate-related vulnerability in plantation frontiers.