Combining Pavement Mechanistic-Empirical Predictions and Life-Cycle Modeling for Low-Carbon Asphalt Mixtures with Sensitivity Insights

Linking mechanistic–empirical models with life cycle assessment enables simultaneous evaluation of asphalt pavement longevity and environmental footprint. This study advances the state of the art by developing a performance linked life cycle framework that couples laboratory measured dynamic modulus and Pavement ME service life with a structured two tier sensitivity design under UAE conditions, distinguishing system level levers that scale totals from binder level levers that can change the ranking among neat, polymer modified, and rubberized binders. Three hot mix asphalts were evaluated using composite binder inventories for polymer modified and rubberized binders, measured modulus inputs to Pavement ME, and regional logistics. Natural gas firing at the asphalt plant reduced production stage global warming potential by about 50 % relative to heavy fuel oil. A maintenance plan that substitutes crack seal, full depth patching, and cold in place recycling for mill and overlay at the same distress triggers reduced cradle to grave emissions by 75 to 78 %. With this plan, rubberized asphalt achieved the lowest global warming potential, 41 % below the neat binder baseline, while also extending predicted service life. The framework provides a transparent link between mechanical performance, inventory choices, and maintenance strategy, yielding decision ready guidance for low carbon pavements in hot climates.