Socio-environmental risk zones for fracking development: a spatialized multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for the Burgos Basin, Mexico

Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has experienced exponential growth, mainly in the United States due to the development of the shale gas energy market. The specialized literature has identified various environmental concerns, including water scarcity risks, surface and groundwater pollution, methane emissions, soil degradation, and increased seismic activity. We apply a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and decision rules framed within sustainability parameters to identify zones of socio-environmental risk associated with shale gas fracking in the Burgos Basin, Mexico. The sustainability of fracking is evaluated by integrating both qualitative and quantitative criteria. Our analysis is supported by spatial data, incorporating distance analysis as a key factor in estimating socio-environmental risks based on proximity to sources of negative impacts. The analysis is further complemented by insights from semi-structured interviews conducted with key stakeholders. In this paper, we present a decision-making support tool for implementing actions or alternatives to reduce sustainable risks in shale gas fracking. Our findings show that, across all levels of sustainability (from weak to strong), at least half of the wells in the study area are in high-risk zones, an insight that should guide sustainable decision-making. We envision this methodology being adaptable to other extractive industries to support evidence-based policy and decision-making.