A Multi-Pathway Exploration of Mpox (Monkeypox Virus) Transmission Dynamics Based on Real Observations

In this study, a deterministic model for simulating human-to-human, animal-to-human, and vertical transmission of monkeypox (mpox) disease is presented for Aprica’s data. For this purpose, our model is divided into human and animal populations for a better understanding of the mpox disease. Incorporating all the modes of mpox transmission in one model makes it novel in its own way. The qualitative study comprises the disease-free and disease-present equilibria. And to understand how swiftly the disease is spreading, the basic reproduction number R 0 is calculated via the next-generation method. Stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium is assessed at both local and global stages. For the quantitative analysis models, parameters are estimated by using the real mpox data of Africa reported between August 19 and September 29, 2024, while the model is simulated by the Adam-Bashforth-Moulton method. Further, to access the sensitivity of the model, sensitivity analysis of R 0 for human and animal is conducted by utilizing Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), combining with Partial Rank Correlation (PRCC) over 1000 iterations. Their results indicate that close interpersonal contact and animal-to-human progression parameters are dominant in the outbreak of an epidemic, while vertical transmission sheds light on the importance of vulnerable individuals. Overall, the findings of the model definitely contribute to the understanding of the mpox disease, and the incorporation of real data is useful for making the prevention and control policies for both human and animal health.