Match Outcome Prediction in 3x3 Basketball: Validating Team Performance Index and Benchmarking Against Shooting Efficiency and Shooting Value (Paris 2024 Olympics)

The fast-paced nature of 3x3 basketball requires simple performance metrics that support quick decision-making. This study aimed to validate a new Team Performance Index (TPI) for predicting match outcomes, using data from all 34 men’s games at the Paris 2024 Olympics. TPI was defined as points scored divided by a composite error term (missed shots + team fouls + turnovers – offensive rebounds + 1). We compared TPI against two established metrics – shooting efficiency (S-EFF) and a statistical value index (S-VAL) – to evaluate their predictive power using ROC-AUC, classification accuracy (with cross-validation), and effect sizes. Results showed that winning teams had significantly higher TPI (mean 1.11 vs 0.68, p<0.001, very large effect size). TPI achieved excellent discrimination between wins and losses (AUC ~0.91, accuracy ~81%), comparable to S-VAL (AUC ~0.93) and superior to S-EFF (AUC ~0.81). No significant difference in AUC was found between TPI and S-VAL, while both outperformed S-EFF. Preliminary “traffic-light” thresholds indicated that TPI <0.67 (red zone) corresponded to almost certain defeat (0% win rate), 0.67–1.05 (yellow) to an even chance (~50%), and >1.05 (green) to near-certain victory (~94% wins). Sensitivity analysis (MCDA) revealed missed shots and team fouls as the dominant drivers of TPI (~74% combined importance), underscoring shooting accuracy and foul discipline as key success factors. In conclusion, TPI is a practical and interpretable index that effectively signals likely outcomes and supports real-time coaching decisions; however, it’s not deterministic and should be further validated in diverse competitions.