Dynamics of the risk of violence: diagnostic challenges and the role of protective factors in the institutional context of Poland

The article examines the role of protective factors in explaining temporal changes in violence risk among forensic psychiatric patients and prison inmates in Poland. A longitudinal study was conducted with 403 men (201 forensic patients and 202 inmates). Participants were assessed twice at a six-month-long interval using the HCR-20v3 and SAPROF. Forensic psychiatric patients showed a significant reduction in integrated risk for vioence, while prison inmates exhibited a slight increase in this field during the same period. In the patient group, the level of motivational protective factors from SAPROF was the sole notable predictor (albeit with low predictive power) explaining the variance in risk reduction. No protective factors significantly predicted risk changes in the inmate group. The findings indicate that risk dynamics may be context-dependent. The conducted analyses require further deepening and expansion. To facilitate this within the Polish psychiatric and penitentiary systems, systemic improvements are necessary, including the further implementation of Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) risk assessment tools.