The future of military doctrine: lessons on AI and autonomy from the 2020 Karabakh War

The recent Armenia-Azerbaijani conflict, particularly the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, highlighted the transformative role of advanced military technologies, notably unmanned systems with varying degrees of automation and autonomy. This conflict represents a pivotal case study in the evolution of military doctrine, as Azerbaijan’s effective use of drones, loitering munitions, and other autonomous systems significantly shaped its military strategy and outcomes. The war showcased the effectiveness of these technologies in gaining tactical and operational superiority, prompting a re-evaluation of traditional military doctrines that rely heavily on manpower and conventional hardware. This paper explores how Azerbaijan integrated these technologies into its military operations and examines the resulting shifts in military doctrine. The focus is on the interplay between technology and strategy, investigating whether AI/autonomy-based systems fostered new forms of military doctrine and, crucially, whether these doctrines proved effective in the context of modern warfare. The analysis also delves into Armenia’s contrasting reliance on more traditional military systems, revealing a stark doctrinal mismatch that contributed to its operational vulnerabilities. Furthermore, the paper addresses broader implications for future conflicts, asking whether this localized war signals a broader trend in military strategy, where autonomous technologies will continue to redefine the modern system of warfare.