The impact of psychological strain on early-career academics’ turnover intentions: A structural equation modeling and machine learning study

Orientation: In 2016, the Sudanese government reported that 12 149 faculty members had resigned from higher education institutions (HEIs). This study focuses on education-sector-specific psychological drivers that trigger early-career academics’ (ECAs) turnover intention (TI) in developing economies. Research purpose: This study examines academic job-specific drivers that psychologically strain ECAs’ TI in developing economies such as Sudan, given the specific challenges ECAs face. Motivation for the study: The rationale for this research stems from evident gaps in ECA’s TI. Existing studies do not provide sufficient insight into education-sector-specific psychological drivers that trigger ECA’s TI in developing economies. Research approach/design and method: In this quantitative cross-lagged study, data were collected via a two-wave questionnaire administered at 6-month intervals to N = 275 ECAs working in Sudanese HEIs. Structural equation modeling (SEM) and machine learning were used in this study. Main findings: The study found that academic job stressors significantly increase psychological strain, which, in turn, leads to TI. Structural equation modeling and machine learning analyses show that workload, limited growth opportunities, technology, and challenges in educational quality significantly predict psychological strain, while job embeddedness moderates the relationship. Practical/managerial implications: One of this study’s significant contributions to professional practice is that job embeddedness can serve as an antidote to challenges and hindrances related to TI. Contribution/value-add: The study grounds the research in the challenge–hindrance model of stress (CHM) to understand the challenges and hindrances specific to the higher education sector. Contrary to some CHM assumptions that certain challenges can be motivational; this was not found to be true in the study.